Silicon Valley Newsletter - May 2026

Real Estate

The Big Story

Quick Take:

Median home sale prices bounced back in a big way in April, as the spring selling season kicked into gear with nearly a 1% year-over-year increase.
Inventory levels continue to climb, with new listings pouring onto the market as sellers look to capitalize on the busier spring months.
Existing home sales are essentially flat on a year-over-year basis, as rising mortgage rates give buyers a reason to pause.

Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.

*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Spring has sprung, and so have median sale prices

After several months of relatively flat price action, median home sale prices picked up some serious momentum in April. The median home sold for $417,700 in April, representing a 2.10% month-over-month increase and a 0.89% year-over-year gain. This bounce is especially notable when you consider that the median sale price had been on a downward trend from June of last year all the way through January, when it bottomed out at $395,000. Since then, we've seen three consecutive months of month-over-month increases, which tells us that the spring selling season is bringing some renewed energy to the market. However, it's worth noting that mortgage rates have ticked back up in recent weeks, with the average 30-year rate climbing to 6.46% in April, up from the 6.00% low we saw in March. This uptick in rates pushed the median monthly P&I payment up to $2,115, though this is still 3.07% lower than the $2,182 the median homeowner was paying at this time last year. If rates continue to climb, it could put a ceiling on how much further prices can rise in the near term.

New listings are flooding the market as sellers get off the sidelines

As the spring selling season heats up, we're seeing a significant wave of new listings hit the market. In April, there were 477,116 new listings nationwide, representing an 8.70% month-over-month increase and a 1.13% year-over-year increase. This influx of new listings is great news for buyers who have been dealing with limited options for the better part of the past few years. On the inventory side, there are now 1,470,000 homes available for sale, representing a 5.76% month-over-month increase and a 1.38% year-over-year increase. Inventory has been steadily building since its December low of 1,230,000, and we're now approaching the levels we were seeing during the peak of inventory season last summer. If this trend continues through May and June, buyers could find themselves with the most options they've had in quite some time, which would be a welcome shift in a market that has been starved for supply.

Existing home sales are holding steady, but buyers remain cautious

Despite the influx of new inventory and three consecutive months of rising prices, existing home sales have remained relatively flat. In April, 4,020,000 homes changed hands, representing just a 0.50% year-over-year increase and a 0.25% month-over-month uptick. While it's encouraging that sales are at least trending in the right direction, the pace of improvement has been glacial, which suggests that many buyers are still sitting on the sidelines. Part of the story here is the recent uptick in mortgage rates. After falling steadily from 6.85% last June to 6.00% in March, rates have bounced back to 6.46%, which may have given some prospective buyers cold feet. If rates stabilize or begin to decline again, we could see existing home sales pick up in a meaningful way as we move into the summer months. For now, though, it seems like buyers are content to wait and watch.

A balancing act heading into the summer

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.

At the national level, we're seeing the market inch closer to a more balanced state. Inventory continues to build heading into the summer, while existing home sales have been essentially flat, meaning that the available supply is lasting a bit longer than it did at this time last year. However, the recent reversal in mortgage rates adds a layer of uncertainty to the equation. If rates continue to rise, we could see demand soften further, which would push the market toward buyers. On the other hand, if rates settle back down and buyers start to re-engage, the growing inventory could get absorbed quickly, keeping the market tilted in favor of sellers. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Single-family median sale prices showed gains across the board in April, with San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties posting year-over-year increases while Santa Clara County held steady.
Inventory levels remain well below last year, with single-family home inventory down more than 12% year-over-year despite strong spring activity.
Single-family homes continue to sell quickly, with listings in San Mateo County selling in just 11 days and Santa Clara County in 9 days.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Prices climb across the board as spring momentum builds

The single-family home market in Silicon Valley showed positive momentum across the region in April. San Mateo County posted a 2.19% year-over-year increase in median sale price, with the median home selling for $2,167,500. Santa Cruz County saw even stronger gains at 5.29% year-over-year, with the median home selling for $1,342,500. Santa Clara County held perfectly steady, with the median home selling for $2,100,000, unchanged from April 2025. The condo market continued to face headwinds, with declines across the board. Santa Clara County condos fell 5.96% year-over-year to $750,000, San Mateo County condos declined 4.99% to $790,000, and Santa Cruz County condos dropped 3.98% year-over-year to $737,750.

Inventory remains tight despite the peak of spring selling season

The spring selling season is in full swing, and inventory is responding accordingly. New single-family listings jumped 34.14% month-over-month, and sold listings increased by 37.05%, signaling strong activity on both sides of the market. There are currently 1,699 single-family homes for sale across Silicon Valley, representing a 9.68% year-over-year decline but a healthy 17.09% month-over-month increase. The condo market is also seeing more activity, with 769 condos currently for sale, down just 5.30% year-over-year. While inventory levels remain below where they were last year, the gap is narrowing as more sellers enter the market to take advantage of the traditionally busy spring months.

Single-family homes are flying off the shelves

Despite being in the heart of the spring selling season, inventory levels continue to lag behind where they were last year. There are currently 1,996 single-family homes for sale across Silicon Valley, representing a 12.03% year-over-year decline. The good news is that transaction activity remains strong, with sold listings up 1.26% year-over-year and new listings coming in at a steady pace. The condo market tells a similar story, with 867 condos currently for sale, down 6.47% year-over-year. This persistent inventory shortage continues to create a competitive environment for buyers, particularly in the single-family home segment where demand remains robust.

Single-family homes are moving quickly while condos show improvement

Single-family homes continue to sell at a brisk pace across Silicon Valley. In San Mateo County, the average single-family home is selling in just 11 days, unchanged from this time last year. Santa Cruz County homes are also selling in 15 days on average, matching last year's pace. Santa Clara County saw a slight slowdown, with homes spending an average of 9 days on the market, representing a 12.50% year-over-year increase. Interestingly, the condo market is showing signs of improvement in Santa Cruz County, where condos are now selling in an average of 29 days, a 3.33% improvement compared to April 2025. However, San Mateo and Santa Clara County condos are taking longer to sell, with year-over-year increases of 13.64% and 46.67%, respectively.

Silicon Valley remains firmly in seller's market territory

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.

The single-family home market remains a strong seller's market across Silicon Valley as we move deeper into spring. San Mateo County has just 1.4 months of supply on the market, representing a dramatic 30% year-over-year decline. Santa Clara County has 1.8 months of supply, unchanged from last year, while Santa Cruz County has 2.9 months of supply, down 25.64% from April 2025. The condo market offers more balance for buyers, with San Mateo County at 3.5 months of supply, Santa Clara County at 4 months, and Santa Cruz County at 4.5 months. With single-family inventory remaining tight and homes selling quickly, buyers in that segment should be prepared to act decisively, while condo buyers have a bit more leverage in negotiations!