Silicon Valley Newsletter - April 2026

Real Estate

Silicon Valley Newsletter - April 2026

The Big Story

Quick Take:
  • Median home sale prices ticked up slightly on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis in February, continuing the holding pattern we've seen in recent months.
  • Inventory levels continue to climb modestly on a year-over-year basis, with new listings surging heading into the spring selling season.
  • Existing home sales rebounded slightly from January, but remain below where they were at this time last year.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.
 

Falling rates continue to ease the affordability crunch

Although median home sale prices have remained remarkably stable over the past several months, the continued decline in mortgage rates is making homeownership considerably more affordable than it was just a year ago. In February, the median home sold for $398,000, representing a modest 0.30% year-over-year increase and a 0.76% uptick from January. On the mortgage rate front, the average 30-year rate dropped to 6.11% in February, representing an 11.32% year-over-year decline from the 6.89% we were seeing at this time last year. This decline in rates has had a major impact on what the average homeowner is paying each month. The median monthly P&I payment came in at $1,952 in
 
February, down 7.79% from the $2,117 the median homeowner was paying just a year ago. That's approximately $165 in monthly savings, which is a significant boost to the average American's budget. If rates continue to trend downward, we could see buyers start to return to the market in a meaningful way as we move deeper into the spring and summer months.

New listings are surging as we head into the spring

One of the most encouraging stories in the housing market right now is the dramatic increase in new listings as we move into the spring selling season. In March, there were 439,000 new listings that hit the market, representing an eye-popping 21.21% month-over-month increase and a 0.70% year-over-year increase. This surge in new listings is a very welcome sight, as it means buyers will have considerably more options to choose from as the market heats up. On the inventory side, there were 1,290,000 homes available for sale in February, representing a 4.03% year-over-year increase and a 2.38% month-over-month increase. This gradual build in inventory, combined with the huge surge in new listings, should give buyers some breathing room as we head into the busier months of the year. That said, inventory levels still have a long way to go before they reach the levels we'd consider truly healthy, so it'll be worth keeping a close eye on whether this momentum carries through the spring.

Existing home sales are showing early signs of life

After a sluggish January, existing home sales rebounded slightly in February, with 4,090,000 homes changing hands. This represents a 1.74% month-over-month increase, but still comes in 3.99% below where we were this time last year. While it's certainly encouraging to see sales pick back up, the year-over-year decline tells us that buyers are still being cautious despite the substantial drop in mortgage rates that we've seen over the past year. Part of the story here may be that buyers are waiting to see even more rate cuts before they jump in, or they may be waiting for the influx of new listings to give them more options to choose from. Either way, it'll be fascinating to see whether the combination of lower rates, climbing inventory, and a fresh wave of new listings is enough to bring buyers off the sidelines in the coming months.

A market that could go either way in the coming months 

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
 
At the national level, we're seeing an interesting dynamic play out. Inventory is growing at a modest pace on a year-over-year basis, existing home sales are lagging slightly behind last year's figures, and new listings are surging into the market just as we head into the traditionally busy spring season. All of this suggests that the market is slowly tilting back toward a more balanced state, which would be welcome news for buyers who have been dealing with tight inventory for years. However, if mortgage rates continue to drop and buyers finally decide to come off the sidelines, we could just as easily see the market swing back in favor of sellers. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!

Big Story Data

Line chart of existing home sales and inventory from February 2025 to February 2026, with sales peaking in December.

Chart of monthly median home prices and 30-year mortgage rates, February 2025 to February 2026.

Line chart of monthly U.S. new listings from March 2019 to March 2026, with recurring seasonal peaks and dips.

Bar chart of monthly P&I payments peaking at $2,311 in June 2025 and declining to $1,952 in February 2026.

Chart of Federal Reserve mortgage-backed securities holdings, rising sharply in 2020–2022 and declining through 2026.

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:
  • Single-family median sale prices showed a mixed picture in March, with San Mateo County posting solid gains while Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties saw year-over-year declines.
  • Inventory levels are starting to normalize, with single-family home inventory down nearly 10% year-over-year but climbing steadily as the spring market ramps up.
  • Single-family homes continue to sell at a rapid pace, with the average listing in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties selling in just 10 and 8 days, respectively.
 
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

San Mateo County leads the charge while other counties pull back

The single-family home market in Silicon Valley showed divergent trends in March as the spring selling season kicked into high gear. San Mateo County posted a solid 5.45% year-over-year increase in median sale price, with the median home selling for $2,175,000. However, Santa Clara County saw a modest 1.65% year-over-year decline, with the median home selling for $2,080,188, while Santa Cruz County experienced a more significant 7.14% drop, with the median home selling for $1,300,000. The condo market presented a wild contrast, with Santa Cruz County condos soaring 46.14% year-over-year to $1,012,000, while San Mateo County condos fell 3.51% to $825,000 and Santa Clara County condos declined 8.13% to $735,000.

Inventory climbs as the spring market heats up

The spring selling season is in full swing, and inventory is responding accordingly. New single-family listings jumped 34.14% month-over-month, and sold listings increased by 37.05%, signaling strong activity on both sides of the market. There are currently 1,699 single-family homes for sale across Silicon Valley, representing a 9.68% year-over-year decline but a healthy 17.09% month-over-month increase. The condo market is also seeing more activity, with 769 condos currently for sale, down just 5.30% year-over-year. While inventory levels remain below where they were last year, the gap is narrowing as more sellers enter the market to take advantage of the traditionally busy spring months.

Single-family homes are flying off the shelves

The pace of sales for single-family homes remains blistering across Silicon Valley's core markets. In San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties, the average single-family home is selling in just 10 and 8 days, respectively, unchanged from this time last year. Santa Cruz County homes are taking a bit longer at 19 days on average, though this still represents a 26.67% year-over-year increase. The condo market tells a more complicated story. San Mateo County condos are actually selling faster than last year, with a 18.75% year-over-year decrease in days on market to just 13 days. However, Santa Clara County condos are spending 76.92% more time on the market at 23 days, and Santa Cruz County condos are taking an average of 96 days to sell, a dramatic 405.26% increase compared to March 2025!

The tale of two markets continues in the East Bay

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
 
The single-family home market remains firmly in seller's market territory across Silicon Valley. San Mateo County has just 1.3 months of supply on the market, representing a 23.53% year-over-year decline. Santa Clara County has 1.5 months of supply, unchanged from last year, while Santa Cruz County has 2.5 months of supply, down 24.24% from March 2025. The condo market offers more options for buyers, with San Mateo County at 3 months of supply, Santa Clara County at 3.6 months, and Santa Cruz County at 4.1 months. With single-family inventory remaining tight and homes selling quickly, buyers in that segment should be prepared for competition, while condo buyers may find a bit more breathing room to make their decisions!

Local Lowdown Data

Line chart of Silicon Valley median condo prices by county from March 2023 to March 2026.

Line chart comparing monthly median single-family home prices in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz, 2023–2026.

Chart of Silicon Valley condo price changes by county, April 2025–March 2026; Santa Cruz jumps to 46% in March.

Chart of year-over-year single-family home median price changes in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz counties.

Chart of Silicon Valley condo inventory, with monthly new listings, sold listings, and homes for sale from March 2024 to March 2026.

Chart of monthly Silicon Valley single-family home listings and inventory from March 2024 to March 2026.

Line chart of monthly condo supply in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz from March 2024 to March 2026.

Line chart comparing monthly condo days on market in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz counties, March 2024–March 2026.

Line chart comparing monthly days on market for single-family homes in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz, March 2024–March 2026.

📞 Contact Patrice Horvath today at (650) 520-7675 

Patrice and the Illuminate Properties team specialize in helping Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, Redwood City, San Carlos, Sunnyvale, and Woodside buyers and sellers navigate today’s evolving market with confidence.


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